During the initial Community Meet, I was honored to attend the gathering hosted by the Journal of Futures Studies Community of Practice. I presented Dreams and Disruptions, a scenario-building game that integrates scenario archetypes, random forces of change, PR Sarkar's theory of collective social psychology, and existential risks and threats.
In this discussion, I explored humanity's journey through randomness and chaos, viewed through the prism of games within the Dreams and Disruptions context. The essence of my presentation delved into the following inquiry: What does scenario building involve when the forces of change are indeterminate?
The summary by Nur Anisah PhD highlights the essence of the Dreams and Disruptions Game effectively. It's impressive how it vividly encapsulates the discussions we engaged in.
"Based on his experience facilitating the game with bankers, Shermon shares insights into their reactions, stating that after playing the game, participants express a newfound understanding of what it feels like to imagine possibilities. He emphasizes that this experience is akin to thinking like a futurist, providing a distinctive mindset. Cruz elaborates on the distinction between traditional forecasting, which focuses on the possible, probable, and plausible futures, and futurist thinking, which extends to the preposterous, preferable, and transformative. The challenge lies in discussing and considering value judgments in preferable and transformative futures, emphasizing the role of futurists in navigating these complexities."
"He discusses the conservatism in the use of scenarios, emphasizing a cautious approach to avoid being labeled as impractical. Shermon notes the reluctance, particularly in the public sector, to embrace discussions about emergence and outliers. He provides an example of pandemic scenarios done in 2015, where decision-makers were hesitant due to perceived high costs."
Here are some of the key insights gathered by Shermon from the 200+ gameplays:
1. There are no winners and losers in this game. D&D is an infinite game. Infinite games maintain attention to long-term issues.
2. D&D is a cooperative game sparking boundless and contextual conversations about plausible, potential, preferable, disowned, and preposterous futures.3. The game can be played with different values and ways of knowing and perceiving the future.
The game continues to evolve and so are our understanding about futures and foresight.
4. The game's potency surfaces when you play it a few times.
For more about Anisah's reflections here .
Here are the links to my talk at the Journal of Futures Studies Community of Practice Meet.
and more at the JFSCOP YouTube Page.